Allgemeines:
Die letzten Schätzungen des US Landwirtschaftsministeriums vom Dienstag hat bestätigt, dass die weltweite Versorgung mit Ölsaaten weiterhin sehr schwierig ist.
Die Produktion von Ölsaaten wurden gegenüber der letzten Schätzung vom Febrauar 08 um fast 300.000 t heruntergesetzt.
Nach diesen Zahlen hat die Welle des Ausverkaufs vonseiten der Fonds sofort ein Ende genommen. Die Kurse haben gedreht.
Förderlich für steigende Kurse waren folgende Gründe:
USD fällt in Rekordtief gegenüber den wichtigsten Währungen, insbesondere des Euro
Mineralölpreise haben gestern die 110 USD/ Barrel durchbrochen.
Argentinien hat die Exportzölle auf Ölsaaten und Öle sowie Biodiesel drastisch heraufgesetzt. Ziel der Massnahme soll sein, die Preisstabilität im Inland zu gewährleiste. Ferner soll der Anbau von Ölsaaten reduziert werden zugunsten von Weizen.
Die Endbestände der weltweiten Ölsaaten wird weiterhin auf ein Rekordtief fallen.
Sehr feste Weizenpreise lassen die Preise für Ölsaaten anziehen, da der Flächenkampf voll entbrannt ist.
Der schwache US-Dollar und die unsicheren Finanzmärkte führen dazu, dass mehr Geld in Agrarrohstoffe fließt.
Viele Länder werden werden um die Inflation zu bekämpfen, drastische Maßnahmen unternehmen, z.B. Reduzierung von Importzöllen, Erhöhung von Exportzöllen. Die Preise werden unter diesen Gesichtspunkten nicht nachhaltig fallen.
Das Verhalten von China, welches einen Teil der Sicherheitsbestände verkaufen möchte, führt zu Nervosität auf den Märkten. Fakt ist jedoch die Sicherheitsbestände von China liegen mit ca 1. Million Tonne gerade um die Hälfte des monatlichen Bedarfs von China. Diese Aktion wird die Märkte nur kurzfristig beeinflussen, mittel- bis langfristig wird der Importbedarf Chinas sehr groß bleiben.
Die Märkte werden momentan nicht von fundamentalen Bedingungen gemacht, sondern von den Finanzmärkten beeinflusst.
Sojaöl
Sojaölpreise haben in Chicago an Stabilität gewonnen. Getrieben durch anziehende Mineralölpreise und die nüchternen USDA Schätzungen haben diesen Trend herbeigeführt.
Palmöl
Sehr Exportzahlen aus Malaysia, wonach zwischen dem 1.-10 März 2008 fast 45% mehr exportiert worden ist als im Vormonatszeitraum, gleichzeitig die Produktion in gleichen Zeitraum um 10% zurückgegangen ist hat zu festeren Preisen in Kuala Lumpur geführt. Überschwemmungen im Osten von Malaysia führen zu schwierigen Bedingungen bei der Ernte. Die steigenden Mineralölpreise förderten ebenfalls den Anstieg. Aufgrund der hohen Bestände in den Produktionsländern fallen die Schwankungen recht moderat aus.
Fakt ist jedoch, dass die Preisspanne zwischen Palmöl und Sojaöl weiterhin gross ist, und für die kommenden Monate Palmöl deutlich wettbewerbsfähiger als Sojaöl ist.
11. März 08
Sojaöl ex Dutch Mill 1.479 USD/tPalmöl cif R´dam 1.275 USD/t
Palmkern- und Kokosöl
Rekordbestände in Indonesien mit Palmkernöl haben in den letzten Tagen Palmkernöl etwas unter Druck gesetzt, die Preis für Palmkernöl sind nach langer Zeit wieder unter Kokosöl gefallen.
Die stärkere Nachfrage nach Kokosöl lässt den Preis auf Rekordhoch.
Trends bei den Hauptölen lassen die Preise für die laurischen Öle ebenfalls steigen.
Rapsöl
Preise für Rapsöl haben nach wieder angezogen und haben die Verluste der letzten Tage eingeholt.
Rapssaat Preise an der Matif ziehen ebenfalls an, so dass unter diese Umständen die Preise nicht fallen werden.
Sonnenblumenöl
Die Erhöhung von Exportzöllen in Argentinien hat heute schon zu höheren Preisen auf USD Basis geführt. Der starke Euro lässt den Preisanstieg moderat ausfallen. Die Versorgung mit Sonnenblumenöl bleibt weiterhin kritisch. Die Hoffnung, dass mit Eintreffen argentinischer Ware die Märkte sich nachhaltigen erholen werden, ist nicht eingetreten. Preise bleiben bis zum 3. Quartal 2008 sehr hoch. Die Hoffnung ruht nun auf die kommende Ernte in der nördlichen Hemisphäre. In wenigen Wochen wird feststehen, wie viel Fläche mit Sonnenblumenkernen angebaut werden. Unter der Annahme normaler Wetterbedingungen kann gerechnet werden, mit welcher Menge Öl im Herbst zu erwarten ist.
Es ist jedoch anzunehmen, dass durch die hohen Exportzölle argentinische Bauern davon abgehalten werden Ölsaaten anzubauen.
Mittelfristig sieht es so aus, muss man mit den hohen Preise leben. Es sieht auch so aus, dass man das 4 Quartal 2008 mit Sonnenblumenöl eindecken müsste, solange die Abschläge noch bestehen. Ferner stellt sich die Frage, wie lange wird der schwache USD bestehen???
Donnerstag, 13. März 2008
Sonntag, 17. Februar 2008
15.02.2008
Allgemeines:
Kaum sind die chinesischen Feiertage vorüber, kommt Bewegung in die Märkte. Getrieben durch Nachrichten, wonach 40% der Rapsernte sowie andere Agrarrohstoffe durch den extremen Frost der letzten Wochen zerstört worden sind.Der rapide Anstieg der chinesischen Nachfrage hat zu einem 3% Anstieg von Sojaöl geführt. Übrige Rohstoffe folgten.
Palm ist fast 4% teurer gehandelt worden und kostet aktuell einen Rekordpreis von 1.140 US-$/t CIF Rotterdam.
Wenn sich die Auswirkungen des Frostes weiter bestätigen, so ist mit weiterem Anstieg der Preise zu rechnen.
Die Spannungen zwischen Venezuela und dem EXXON Konzern bezüglich der Entschädigung der Ölfelder durch die venezuelanische Regierung, wo EXXON weltweit die Einfrierung von Konten der venezuelanischen Ölgesellschaft erwirkt hat. Daraufhin hat Venezuela den Verkauf von Mineralöl an EXXON eingestellt. Mineralölpreise sind auf 95,98USD pro Barrel in New York angestiegen.
Sojaöl
Gestern hat die Börse in Chicago mit 190 Punkte im Plus, ca. 3% höher als am Vortag. Da die Bestände von Sojabohnen weltweit den niedrigsten Stand aller Zeiten haben, ist mit einer Entspannung nicht zu rechnen. Falls die Erntemengen aus Argentinien und Brasilien nicht so hoch wie erwartet ausfallen, sich die Flächen in der nördlichen Hemisphäre zu ungunsten von Soja entwickeln, der Bedarf aus Asien ungebrochen bleibt, dann wird sich an der angespannten Situation nichts ändern.
Palmöl
Palmölpreise haben aufgrund von steigenden Sojaöl- und Mineralölpreisen ebenfalls deutlich zugelegt, und haben Rekordwerte erreicht. Die Nachfrage aus Asien treibt die Preise weiter in die Höhe. So zeigen erste Statistiken einen Anstieg der Exporte aus Malaysia in Höhe von 30% in der ersten Hälfte von Februar 2008 zum Vormonatsvergleich. Diese Entwicklung wird weiterhin erwartet, zumal die Preise für Palmöl deutlich unter Sojapreisen liegen. Dieser Zustand macht Palmöl vor allem in wärmeren Monaten, sehr begehrt.
Sojaöl FOB Dutch Mall 1.400 USD/t Palmöl CIF Rotterdam 1.140 USD/t
Palmkern- und Kokosöl
Getrieben durch steigende Palm- und Sojaölpreise an den Weltmärkten bleiben die Preise für Kokos- und Palmkernöl auf hohem Rekord-Niveau. Kokosöl kostet aktuell 1.355 US-$/t für März/ April 2008 Verschiffung CIF Rotterdam, Palmkernöl liegt 10US-$ darüber.
Rapsöl
Nachdem die Bestände in Europa sich etwas erholt haben, die Abnahmen aus dem Biodiesel ins Stottern gekommen sind, sind die Rapsölpreise in den letzten Tagen unter Druck gekommen. Doch die Situation an der Börse in Chicago und Winnipeg, wo die Saatenpreise stetig nach oben gehen, ist der Abwärtstrend von Rapsöl limitiert. Solange die Rapssaat Preise sich auf Rekordhochs bewegen, ist ein Crush mit niedrigeren als Ölpreisen, nicht rentabel. Daher ist kurzfristig mit einem weiteren Anstieg der Preise zu rechnen.
Sonnenblumenöl
Die Ungewissheit über den Ernteverlauf in Argentinien und die explodierenden Sojaölpreise stützen weiterhin die Preise für Sonnenblumenöl.Die Versorgung mit Sonnenblumenöl bleibt weiterhin knapp. Die Nachfrage in der EU ist weiterhin stabil.
Kaum sind die chinesischen Feiertage vorüber, kommt Bewegung in die Märkte. Getrieben durch Nachrichten, wonach 40% der Rapsernte sowie andere Agrarrohstoffe durch den extremen Frost der letzten Wochen zerstört worden sind.Der rapide Anstieg der chinesischen Nachfrage hat zu einem 3% Anstieg von Sojaöl geführt. Übrige Rohstoffe folgten.
Palm ist fast 4% teurer gehandelt worden und kostet aktuell einen Rekordpreis von 1.140 US-$/t CIF Rotterdam.
Wenn sich die Auswirkungen des Frostes weiter bestätigen, so ist mit weiterem Anstieg der Preise zu rechnen.
Die Spannungen zwischen Venezuela und dem EXXON Konzern bezüglich der Entschädigung der Ölfelder durch die venezuelanische Regierung, wo EXXON weltweit die Einfrierung von Konten der venezuelanischen Ölgesellschaft erwirkt hat. Daraufhin hat Venezuela den Verkauf von Mineralöl an EXXON eingestellt. Mineralölpreise sind auf 95,98USD pro Barrel in New York angestiegen.
Sojaöl
Gestern hat die Börse in Chicago mit 190 Punkte im Plus, ca. 3% höher als am Vortag. Da die Bestände von Sojabohnen weltweit den niedrigsten Stand aller Zeiten haben, ist mit einer Entspannung nicht zu rechnen. Falls die Erntemengen aus Argentinien und Brasilien nicht so hoch wie erwartet ausfallen, sich die Flächen in der nördlichen Hemisphäre zu ungunsten von Soja entwickeln, der Bedarf aus Asien ungebrochen bleibt, dann wird sich an der angespannten Situation nichts ändern.
Palmöl
Palmölpreise haben aufgrund von steigenden Sojaöl- und Mineralölpreisen ebenfalls deutlich zugelegt, und haben Rekordwerte erreicht. Die Nachfrage aus Asien treibt die Preise weiter in die Höhe. So zeigen erste Statistiken einen Anstieg der Exporte aus Malaysia in Höhe von 30% in der ersten Hälfte von Februar 2008 zum Vormonatsvergleich. Diese Entwicklung wird weiterhin erwartet, zumal die Preise für Palmöl deutlich unter Sojapreisen liegen. Dieser Zustand macht Palmöl vor allem in wärmeren Monaten, sehr begehrt.
Sojaöl FOB Dutch Mall 1.400 USD/t Palmöl CIF Rotterdam 1.140 USD/t
Palmkern- und Kokosöl
Getrieben durch steigende Palm- und Sojaölpreise an den Weltmärkten bleiben die Preise für Kokos- und Palmkernöl auf hohem Rekord-Niveau. Kokosöl kostet aktuell 1.355 US-$/t für März/ April 2008 Verschiffung CIF Rotterdam, Palmkernöl liegt 10US-$ darüber.
Rapsöl
Nachdem die Bestände in Europa sich etwas erholt haben, die Abnahmen aus dem Biodiesel ins Stottern gekommen sind, sind die Rapsölpreise in den letzten Tagen unter Druck gekommen. Doch die Situation an der Börse in Chicago und Winnipeg, wo die Saatenpreise stetig nach oben gehen, ist der Abwärtstrend von Rapsöl limitiert. Solange die Rapssaat Preise sich auf Rekordhochs bewegen, ist ein Crush mit niedrigeren als Ölpreisen, nicht rentabel. Daher ist kurzfristig mit einem weiteren Anstieg der Preise zu rechnen.
Sonnenblumenöl
Die Ungewissheit über den Ernteverlauf in Argentinien und die explodierenden Sojaölpreise stützen weiterhin die Preise für Sonnenblumenöl.Die Versorgung mit Sonnenblumenöl bleibt weiterhin knapp. Die Nachfrage in der EU ist weiterhin stabil.
Montag, 4. Februar 2008
04.02.2008 Oils
General
Markets for vegetable oils are still under uncertainty. Severe draught in Argentina have still big influence on crop results concerning sunflower seed and soybean. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,8 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
As soybean stocks are at record low levels negative weather news have increasing impact on prices. Heavy rainfall in Brazil hinders early harvesting of soybeans. This will lead to lower supplies from Brazil in favour of US Soybeans.
Higher prices for grains and corn make it more difficult to gain acreage for soybean planting. Soybeans must be much more expensive in order to be competitive against grains and corn.
Today Indonesia announced to increase export taxes on palm products to 20-25 % if international market price for palmoil exceeds 1.200 US-$/t. Prices in Kuala Lumpur for palm futures rose by nearly 4%.
Weather uncertainties remain the biggest item to watch concerning oilseeds. Due to profit taking and the nervousness in the international financial market, futures get under pressure – but this situation remains very shortlived.
Many importing countries try to solve the inflation risk by reducing the import taxes. This leads to stable consumption. The usage of oils and oilseed remain high. As a consequence stocks get further down.
Palm Oil
Palm Oil Plan of the Indonesian government to increase export tax on palm products to 20-25 % if world market price for palm oil exceeds 1200 USD/t, hat increasing impact on palm oil prices. Today prices in Kuala Lumpur jumped by nearly 4%. Encouraged by higher soyoil prices interest on palm oil remain high. It is considered that due to the price difference between soyoil an palmoil a shift towards palm, mainly in Europe 27 will increase prices in short to medium term. With warmer temperatures coming usage of palmoil will increase in the northern hemisphere. Stocks of palmoil will be reduced as the production peak of palm trees is over. Supply concerns will occur and this will increase the prices.
Coconut- and Palmkernel Oil
Driven by higher Palm Oil prices of palmkernel oil increased more sharply than those of coconut oil. Palmkernel oil is now more expensive than coconut oil.
Higher Palmkernel oil prices lead to higher coconut oil prices.
Production in exporting countries is below demand growth. Unregular shipments and the fact that most of the users are not long covered keep the prices at a high level.
Rape Oil and Sun Oil
Rape Oil prices hat a setback due to uncertainty in the biodiesel industry. New taxes in Germany on Bio diesel had a negative influence on usage of rape oil.
Contrary to weaker oil prices rape seed prices increase due to crop prospects.
Rapeseed supplies will be tight this and next season due to lower production and stocks.
Sun Oil
Sunoil remains at record levels as relief from Argentina will not come as expected. Demand for sun oil remains very high. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,80 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
Markets for vegetable oils are still under uncertainty. Severe draught in Argentina have still big influence on crop results concerning sunflower seed and soybean. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,8 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
As soybean stocks are at record low levels negative weather news have increasing impact on prices. Heavy rainfall in Brazil hinders early harvesting of soybeans. This will lead to lower supplies from Brazil in favour of US Soybeans.
Higher prices for grains and corn make it more difficult to gain acreage for soybean planting. Soybeans must be much more expensive in order to be competitive against grains and corn.
Today Indonesia announced to increase export taxes on palm products to 20-25 % if international market price for palmoil exceeds 1.200 US-$/t. Prices in Kuala Lumpur for palm futures rose by nearly 4%.
Weather uncertainties remain the biggest item to watch concerning oilseeds. Due to profit taking and the nervousness in the international financial market, futures get under pressure – but this situation remains very shortlived.
Many importing countries try to solve the inflation risk by reducing the import taxes. This leads to stable consumption. The usage of oils and oilseed remain high. As a consequence stocks get further down.
Palm Oil
Palm Oil Plan of the Indonesian government to increase export tax on palm products to 20-25 % if world market price for palm oil exceeds 1200 USD/t, hat increasing impact on palm oil prices. Today prices in Kuala Lumpur jumped by nearly 4%. Encouraged by higher soyoil prices interest on palm oil remain high. It is considered that due to the price difference between soyoil an palmoil a shift towards palm, mainly in Europe 27 will increase prices in short to medium term. With warmer temperatures coming usage of palmoil will increase in the northern hemisphere. Stocks of palmoil will be reduced as the production peak of palm trees is over. Supply concerns will occur and this will increase the prices.
Coconut- and Palmkernel Oil
Driven by higher Palm Oil prices of palmkernel oil increased more sharply than those of coconut oil. Palmkernel oil is now more expensive than coconut oil.
Higher Palmkernel oil prices lead to higher coconut oil prices.
Production in exporting countries is below demand growth. Unregular shipments and the fact that most of the users are not long covered keep the prices at a high level.
Rape Oil and Sun Oil
Rape Oil prices hat a setback due to uncertainty in the biodiesel industry. New taxes in Germany on Bio diesel had a negative influence on usage of rape oil.
Contrary to weaker oil prices rape seed prices increase due to crop prospects.
Rapeseed supplies will be tight this and next season due to lower production and stocks.
Sun Oil
Sunoil remains at record levels as relief from Argentina will not come as expected. Demand for sun oil remains very high. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,80 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
Mittwoch, 30. Januar 2008
Zucker, Kakao, Mais
Zucker
Der Zucker-Future (März-Kontrakt) tendiert bei 12,47 Cents je Pfund 0,27 Cents fester.
Kakao
Kakao (März-Kontrakt) wird bei 2.288 Dollar je Tonne 53 Dollar teurer gehandelt.
Mais
Der Mais-Future (März-Kontrakt) gibt um 2,4 Cents auf 498,4 Cents je Scheffel nach.
Der Zucker-Future (März-Kontrakt) tendiert bei 12,47 Cents je Pfund 0,27 Cents fester.
Kakao
Kakao (März-Kontrakt) wird bei 2.288 Dollar je Tonne 53 Dollar teurer gehandelt.
Mais
Der Mais-Future (März-Kontrakt) gibt um 2,4 Cents auf 498,4 Cents je Scheffel nach.
Haselnusskerne
Haselnusskerne
Mit 8,65 YTL/kg kosten Haselnusskerne 11-13 mm umgerechnet 5.00 Euro/kg ex works Türkei.
Per 29.01.2008 hat die TMO insgesamt über 92.000 t Haselnusskerne aufgekauft. Die Käufe gehen weiter.
Starke Schneefälle und Frost bedrohen am Schwarzen Meer die Haselnussblüten.
Mit 8,65 YTL/kg kosten Haselnusskerne 11-13 mm umgerechnet 5.00 Euro/kg ex works Türkei.
Per 29.01.2008 hat die TMO insgesamt über 92.000 t Haselnusskerne aufgekauft. Die Käufe gehen weiter.
Starke Schneefälle und Frost bedrohen am Schwarzen Meer die Haselnussblüten.
Mittwoch, 23. Januar 2008
23.01.2008
Hazelnutkernels
Hazelnut kernels 11/13 mm cost at the moment 8,90 YTL/kg ex works Turkey which compares to 5,11 Euro/kg.
TMO has bought nearly 92.ooo tons of kernels so far.
Hazelnut kernels 11/13 mm cost at the moment 8,90 YTL/kg ex works Turkey which compares to 5,11 Euro/kg.
TMO has bought nearly 92.ooo tons of kernels so far.
22.01.2008
General
The financial market has start to lose ground since yesterday worldwide. Stock Exchange in Germany lost nearly 7% per day, the highest loss since September 11th, 2007.
Today losses went on in Japan and China, and it is expected that the crisis will further occur.
Banks are still writing down losses due to subprime crisis in the USA.
This nervousness influenced the commodity markets, also agricultural products.
Futures of Palmoil in Kuala Lumpur have lost nearly 5% today.
The overnight session in Chicago for the futures of soy and wheat indicate also big losses today.
Panic sales influence actually the markets.
Fundamentals for agricultural products have not changed. Production of the most important oilseeds is still not enough to fulfil the demand.
7 Oilseeds
World Supply and Demand (Mio. Tn)
Season 07/08* .06/07. 05/06 .04/05 .03/04
Opening Stocks 82,90 73,20 64,90 48,00 53,40
Production 378,40 397,20 383,30 372,10 324,40
Total Supplies 461,30 470,40 448,20 420,10 377,80
Disappearance 400,90 387,50 375,00 355,20 329,80
Ending Stocks 60,40 82,90 73,20 64,90 48,00
Stock/Usage ** 15% 21% 20% 18% 15%
* Forecast
** Stocks in % of annual disapperance
Source: USDA
Ending stocks by the end of crops season 2007/2008 will be reduced by nearly 27% compared to last year. This is the sharpest decrease ever seen. The production of the 7 Oilseeds is expected to be down by nearly 19 Mio tons compared to last season, mainly to lower production of soybeans and sunflower seed. The Production of sunflower seed is expected to decrease by nearly 3 Mio tons.
Fight for acres is expected to be very hard as both stocks for oilseeds and grains are at lowest levels.
This will have increasing impact on prices.
Strong demand remains from China and India.
Also stocks of oils become tight despite the fact that production of palm oil is increasing sharply.
Exchange RatePoor prospects on economic growth in Europe made the US-$ firmer compared to Euro.
Crude Mineral Oil
Turmoil in the financial sector led to big losses in crude mineral oil.
Palm Oil
Palm Oil futures corrected sharp in Kuala Lumpur due to nervousness in the financial sector and fell to a two weeks low.
Profit taking and liquidation of positions were the reason.
Coconut- and Palmkernel Oil
Prices of coconut and palmkernel oil fell also due to the financial crisis from their record levels. .
Rape Oil and Sun Oil
Prices for Rape Oil and Sunoil remain at record levels, despite yesterday´s and today´s corrections.
Rapeseed supplies will be tight this and next season due to lower production and stocks. Sunoil remaines at record levels as relief from Argentina will not come as expected. Demand for sun oil remains very high.
The financial market has start to lose ground since yesterday worldwide. Stock Exchange in Germany lost nearly 7% per day, the highest loss since September 11th, 2007.
Today losses went on in Japan and China, and it is expected that the crisis will further occur.
Banks are still writing down losses due to subprime crisis in the USA.
This nervousness influenced the commodity markets, also agricultural products.
Futures of Palmoil in Kuala Lumpur have lost nearly 5% today.
The overnight session in Chicago for the futures of soy and wheat indicate also big losses today.
Panic sales influence actually the markets.
Fundamentals for agricultural products have not changed. Production of the most important oilseeds is still not enough to fulfil the demand.
7 Oilseeds
World Supply and Demand (Mio. Tn)
Season 07/08* .06/07. 05/06 .04/05 .03/04
Opening Stocks 82,90 73,20 64,90 48,00 53,40
Production 378,40 397,20 383,30 372,10 324,40
Total Supplies 461,30 470,40 448,20 420,10 377,80
Disappearance 400,90 387,50 375,00 355,20 329,80
Ending Stocks 60,40 82,90 73,20 64,90 48,00
Stock/Usage ** 15% 21% 20% 18% 15%
* Forecast
** Stocks in % of annual disapperance
Source: USDA
Ending stocks by the end of crops season 2007/2008 will be reduced by nearly 27% compared to last year. This is the sharpest decrease ever seen. The production of the 7 Oilseeds is expected to be down by nearly 19 Mio tons compared to last season, mainly to lower production of soybeans and sunflower seed. The Production of sunflower seed is expected to decrease by nearly 3 Mio tons.
Fight for acres is expected to be very hard as both stocks for oilseeds and grains are at lowest levels.
This will have increasing impact on prices.
Strong demand remains from China and India.
Also stocks of oils become tight despite the fact that production of palm oil is increasing sharply.
Exchange RatePoor prospects on economic growth in Europe made the US-$ firmer compared to Euro.
Crude Mineral Oil
Turmoil in the financial sector led to big losses in crude mineral oil.
Palm Oil
Palm Oil futures corrected sharp in Kuala Lumpur due to nervousness in the financial sector and fell to a two weeks low.
Profit taking and liquidation of positions were the reason.
Coconut- and Palmkernel Oil
Prices of coconut and palmkernel oil fell also due to the financial crisis from their record levels. .
Rape Oil and Sun Oil
Prices for Rape Oil and Sunoil remain at record levels, despite yesterday´s and today´s corrections.
Rapeseed supplies will be tight this and next season due to lower production and stocks. Sunoil remaines at record levels as relief from Argentina will not come as expected. Demand for sun oil remains very high.
15.01.2008
Ölmärkte
Die mit grosser Spannung erwarteten USDA Zahlen haben die Befürchtungen bestätigt, dass die Versorgung mit Ölsaaten weiterhin angespannt bleibt.
Die erwartete Ölsaatenproduktion wird für das Erntejahr 2007/2008 mit 389,7 Millionen Tonnen geschätzt. Gegenüber der letzten Schätzung vom Dezember 2007 entspricht das einem Rückgang von 1,6 Millionen Tonnen.
Die sehr trockenen Wetterverhältnisse in Südamerika haben bereits zu Korrekturen in der Schätzung geführt. So wird die brasilianische Sojabohnenernte um 1,5 Millionen Tonnen weniger ausfallen als bei der letzten Schätzung erwartet.
Die Trockenheit wirkt sich auch auf die Ernteaussichten für Sonnenblumenkerne aus. Argentinische Ernteaussichten für Sonnenblumenkerne sind um 0,2 Millionen Tonnen heruntergesetzt worden.
Bei der ohnehin sehr knappen Versorgung mit Sonnenblumenkernen wirkt sich dieser Zustand katastrophal auf die Preisentwicklung aus.
Die weltweiten Bestände sowohl für Ölsaaten als auch für Getreide sind weiter rückläufig. Weizenbestände haben den niedrigsten Wert seit 60 Jahren erreicht.
Nach diesen Zahlen sind die Preise nach oben explodiert. Der gesamte Sojakomplex hat wieder Rekordwerte erreicht.
Rapssaat- und Rapsölpreise haben ebenfalls wieder Rekordhöhen erreicht.
Offerten für Sonnenblumenöl sind verschwunden. Es wird erwartet, dass heute die 1700 US$/t-Marke durchbrochen wird.
Palmölpreise haben heute um 3% angezogen. Sowohl die festen Sojaölpreise und Produktionsprobleme in Malaysia führen zu immer höheren Preisen.
Da der Flächenkampf zwischen Sojabohnen und Mais für die USA, die im März beginnt, noch bevorsteht, ist zu befürchten, dass die Preisrallye weitergehen wird.
Kurz- bis mittelfristig ist mit einer Entspannung auf den Rohstoffmärkten nicht zu rechnen.
10.01.2008
General
Markets are still under fire. Prices of vegetable oils are further increasing. Existing demand from China and India, and rumours about planned reducing import taxes in India, are keep the markets under pressure.
The following table shows the price changes of the most important commodities for the food industry.
Driven by lower stocks and deteriotating weather conditions in South America fears of bad crops lead to higher prices for all oils.
1. Due to lower stocks in the USA and instability in Nigeria caused again increasing prices after a setback earlier this week.
2. Disappointing employment figures in the USA weakened the US- $ again. Weather prospects in South America and increasing prices for mineral oil led to higher prices in Chicago for the soycomplex.
Palm Oil
Increasing demand from China and rumours about import tax reductions in India have caused that prices for palmoil have reached record high with 1.042,4 US-$/t cir Rotterdam. Higher prices of soyoil and mineral oil strengthen the prices for palm oil. Export figures are not so bad as feared, production increase is not so high as anticipated, so the prices rally from one record to the other. Temporarily price setbacks occur due to profit taking, but the direction shows higher. As crude palmoil has a discount of nearly 85US-$ to soyoil it is expected that there will be much more shift to palm in countries where possible.
Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Higher prices for Palmoil and soyoil have also an increasing impact on lauric oils. Additionally shipments from origin are very irregular and shipments from the Philippines are still below last years level. Still very low stocks in Rotterdam keep the prices under pressure.
Rapeseed Oil
EU Rapeseed Crushings were higher than expected in France, Germany and Benelux countries. EU 27 Crushings of 3 oilseeds are further increasing.
Prices for rapeseed are increasing due to this demand from the crushers and due to the increasing prices for sunoil.
Sun Oil
The first in history prices for sunoil reached 1.600 US-$/t FOB Eurpean ports. Supply concerns from Argentina due to icy temperatures and concerns about energy crisis in Argentina have pushed up the prices from yesterday to today by nearly 30 US-$. Crop prospects in Argentina remain poor, as weather conditions are too dry for the time.
Average rainfall compared to last year is catastrophic.
This means that under these circumstances the anticipated crop result will not come true, this will cause problems in the nearer future.
Die mit grosser Spannung erwarteten USDA Zahlen haben die Befürchtungen bestätigt, dass die Versorgung mit Ölsaaten weiterhin angespannt bleibt.
Die erwartete Ölsaatenproduktion wird für das Erntejahr 2007/2008 mit 389,7 Millionen Tonnen geschätzt. Gegenüber der letzten Schätzung vom Dezember 2007 entspricht das einem Rückgang von 1,6 Millionen Tonnen.
Die sehr trockenen Wetterverhältnisse in Südamerika haben bereits zu Korrekturen in der Schätzung geführt. So wird die brasilianische Sojabohnenernte um 1,5 Millionen Tonnen weniger ausfallen als bei der letzten Schätzung erwartet.
Die Trockenheit wirkt sich auch auf die Ernteaussichten für Sonnenblumenkerne aus. Argentinische Ernteaussichten für Sonnenblumenkerne sind um 0,2 Millionen Tonnen heruntergesetzt worden.
Bei der ohnehin sehr knappen Versorgung mit Sonnenblumenkernen wirkt sich dieser Zustand katastrophal auf die Preisentwicklung aus.
Die weltweiten Bestände sowohl für Ölsaaten als auch für Getreide sind weiter rückläufig. Weizenbestände haben den niedrigsten Wert seit 60 Jahren erreicht.
Nach diesen Zahlen sind die Preise nach oben explodiert. Der gesamte Sojakomplex hat wieder Rekordwerte erreicht.
Rapssaat- und Rapsölpreise haben ebenfalls wieder Rekordhöhen erreicht.
Offerten für Sonnenblumenöl sind verschwunden. Es wird erwartet, dass heute die 1700 US$/t-Marke durchbrochen wird.
Palmölpreise haben heute um 3% angezogen. Sowohl die festen Sojaölpreise und Produktionsprobleme in Malaysia führen zu immer höheren Preisen.
Da der Flächenkampf zwischen Sojabohnen und Mais für die USA, die im März beginnt, noch bevorsteht, ist zu befürchten, dass die Preisrallye weitergehen wird.
Kurz- bis mittelfristig ist mit einer Entspannung auf den Rohstoffmärkten nicht zu rechnen.
10.01.2008
General
Markets are still under fire. Prices of vegetable oils are further increasing. Existing demand from China and India, and rumours about planned reducing import taxes in India, are keep the markets under pressure.
The following table shows the price changes of the most important commodities for the food industry.
Driven by lower stocks and deteriotating weather conditions in South America fears of bad crops lead to higher prices for all oils.
1. Due to lower stocks in the USA and instability in Nigeria caused again increasing prices after a setback earlier this week.
2. Disappointing employment figures in the USA weakened the US- $ again. Weather prospects in South America and increasing prices for mineral oil led to higher prices in Chicago for the soycomplex.
Palm Oil
Increasing demand from China and rumours about import tax reductions in India have caused that prices for palmoil have reached record high with 1.042,4 US-$/t cir Rotterdam. Higher prices of soyoil and mineral oil strengthen the prices for palm oil. Export figures are not so bad as feared, production increase is not so high as anticipated, so the prices rally from one record to the other. Temporarily price setbacks occur due to profit taking, but the direction shows higher. As crude palmoil has a discount of nearly 85US-$ to soyoil it is expected that there will be much more shift to palm in countries where possible.
Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Higher prices for Palmoil and soyoil have also an increasing impact on lauric oils. Additionally shipments from origin are very irregular and shipments from the Philippines are still below last years level. Still very low stocks in Rotterdam keep the prices under pressure.
Rapeseed Oil
EU Rapeseed Crushings were higher than expected in France, Germany and Benelux countries. EU 27 Crushings of 3 oilseeds are further increasing.
Prices for rapeseed are increasing due to this demand from the crushers and due to the increasing prices for sunoil.
Sun Oil
The first in history prices for sunoil reached 1.600 US-$/t FOB Eurpean ports. Supply concerns from Argentina due to icy temperatures and concerns about energy crisis in Argentina have pushed up the prices from yesterday to today by nearly 30 US-$. Crop prospects in Argentina remain poor, as weather conditions are too dry for the time.
Average rainfall compared to last year is catastrophic.
This means that under these circumstances the anticipated crop result will not come true, this will cause problems in the nearer future.
Montag, 3. Dezember 2007
03.12.2007
| Hazelnut Kernels TMO bought nearly 90.000 t of hazelnutkernels by the end of last week. This keeps the prices at a high level and are at 13,50YTL/kg for 11-13 mm ex works Turkey, which compares to 4,94 Euros/kg. Cocoa Prices for cocoa increased in London to GBP972,- due to funds buying. Vegetable Oils On Friday prices of oils got a setback due to liquidation of long-positions and a decrease of mineral oil prices. Prices of mineral oil eased by nearly 10% since 26th November 2007. a) Coming from 97,7US-$/Barrel on Monday, prices came back to 88,29 US-$/Barrel. Better stocks than anticipated and the warm winter caused this correction. b) Better economic figures in the USA and concerns in the EU due to higher inflation rate, strengthened the USD versus Euro. c) Following aspects will determine the direction of vegetable oils in the nearer future: *Soybean prospects in South America became worse due to unfavourable weather conditions during the last couple of weaks. Unusual dry weather in most areas of Argentina and Brazil lead to detoriating conditions. It is expected that the crop in early 2008 will be smaller than anticipated. * Very dry conditions in Argentina make the growth of the crops (Sunflower and Soybeans) more difficult. * Imports of oils to India and China are unexpectedly high. Rumours that China will reduce import taxes leave the prices firm. * Very low stocks in EU-27 countries and very slow imports put some pressure on the prices. * Situation of the palm oil production will play an important role on the direction of oils and oilseeds during the nearer future. Palm Oil Futures in Kuala Lumpur eased due to weaker mineral oil prices. Eyes are turned to import tax ideas of China and export figures of the last month. Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil Prices for Coconut and Palmkernel Oil were very active last week. Very low stocks in Rotterdam keep the prices at a very high level. Rapeseed Oil Prices of Rape Oil reached record highs. Though factories work with full capacity in Europe, stocks are unusually low in Europe. Demand for Rapeseed Oil remains high, due to high prices of mineral oil and of sunoil. Very high prices for wheat keep the prices for rapeseed at record highs. Very high rapeseed prices let the prices for rape oil rising. Sun Oil Interest for Sun Oil remains high. Weather reports from Argentina from where some relief was expected in 2008, destroys hopes of higher crop and sunoil from Argentina. Increasing rapeseed and rape oil prices have firm impact on sunoil prices. |
Dienstag, 13. November 2007
12.11.2007
HAZELNUT KERNELS
Prices of Hazelnutkernels are increasing in Turkey with the quantities the TMO is buying out of the market. Today Hazelnut Kernels cost with 8.75 YTL/kg and an exchange rate of 1,75 YTL/Euro 5,00 Euros/kg. Per November 12th, 2007 TMO bought nearly 81.000 t of Hazelnut Kernels.
VEGETABLE OILS
General
Markets for vegetable oils are still under pressure. New all-time price highs have been established in all commodities. Soyoil prices have reached levels which have not seen since 1974. Palmoil Prices are in record levels. The USDA report published on Friday, 9th November 2007 did not bring any relief to the markets. Analysts expect the coming months to be still very tight. That futures would come due to profit taking under pressure can be expected, but this would be shortlived.
a) Crude Mineral Oil Prices remain at a very high level. Profit taking eases somehow the prices, but the situation remains tight. Devaluating US$ and falling stocks are increasing the interest in commodities to investments.
b) Bad news from the financial sector continue to influence the markets. Doubts that such news will be expected for the nearer future keeps the value of the US-Dollar falling.
c) The latest report from USDA showed no changes. The situation of oilseeds remain tight. Only wheat crop expectations have risen a bit. Argentina has increased export taxes on agricultural products. Soybeans will be taxed with 35% (previous: 27,5%), soya oil and meal with 32%(previous 24%), sunseed with 32% (23,5%), sunoil and sunmeal with 30%(20%), wheat with 28%(20%) and corn with 25%(20%).It is unclear wheather the increase in export taxes will be released by September 1st). As nearly 80% of the export volume for the coming season have been registrated it is expected that in order to avoid tax losses, the changes to be come effective by September 1st onwords.
d) It has been announced today that Pakistan will also reduce import taxes on Malaysian Palmoil products, other countries have also intentions to reduce import taxes to fight against inflation in their countries.
e) China and India are absorbing still higher quantities of oils and oilseeds.
f) The crises in the financial markets make investments in agricultural commodities attractive as these commodities are regarded to be saver.
Palm Oil
Interest on palmoil remain due to higher prices of soyoil and mineral oil at a very high level. Intentions of countries to reduce their import taxes keep the prices of palmoil firm. Futures eases from time to time due to profit taking, but the price trend is still increasing.
Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Short covering and increasing prices for soyoil and palmoil let also the prices of coconut and palmkernel oil increasing. Export and production figures for coconut oil from producing countries are still below preceding years.
Rapeseed Oil
Prices for Rapeseed Oil are still under the influence of still very high prices for sunoil.
Also prices for rapeseed remain firm due to the fact that nearly 15% of crops acreage have been lost in favour of wheat or due to unfavourable weather conditions in Europe.
Sun Oil
New export taxes from Argentina have caused uncertainty for sunoil from Argentina. Prices have risen in Argentina by nearly 20US-$/t on Friday. Depending on the situation if Argentina will impose higher taxes by September 1st, prices will rise further. Sellers are very reserved, buyers are shocked by these prices. Both sides are waiting as long as they could.
For nearer positions it can be said that heavy storms at the Black Sea ports have destroyed many loading stations also of sunoil. This caused that actually no offers are available from Black Sea Ports for nearer positions.
General
Markets for vegetable oils are still under pressure. New all-time price highs have been established in all commodities. Soyoil prices have reached levels which have not seen since 1974. Palmoil Prices are in record levels. The USDA report published on Friday, 9th November 2007 did not bring any relief to the markets. Analysts expect the coming months to be still very tight. That futures would come due to profit taking under pressure can be expected, but this would be shortlived.
a) Crude Mineral Oil Prices remain at a very high level. Profit taking eases somehow the prices, but the situation remains tight. Devaluating US$ and falling stocks are increasing the interest in commodities to investments.
b) Bad news from the financial sector continue to influence the markets. Doubts that such news will be expected for the nearer future keeps the value of the US-Dollar falling.
c) The latest report from USDA showed no changes. The situation of oilseeds remain tight. Only wheat crop expectations have risen a bit. Argentina has increased export taxes on agricultural products. Soybeans will be taxed with 35% (previous: 27,5%), soya oil and meal with 32%(previous 24%), sunseed with 32% (23,5%), sunoil and sunmeal with 30%(20%), wheat with 28%(20%) and corn with 25%(20%).It is unclear wheather the increase in export taxes will be released by September 1st). As nearly 80% of the export volume for the coming season have been registrated it is expected that in order to avoid tax losses, the changes to be come effective by September 1st onwords.
d) It has been announced today that Pakistan will also reduce import taxes on Malaysian Palmoil products, other countries have also intentions to reduce import taxes to fight against inflation in their countries.
e) China and India are absorbing still higher quantities of oils and oilseeds.
f) The crises in the financial markets make investments in agricultural commodities attractive as these commodities are regarded to be saver.
Palm Oil
Interest on palmoil remain due to higher prices of soyoil and mineral oil at a very high level. Intentions of countries to reduce their import taxes keep the prices of palmoil firm. Futures eases from time to time due to profit taking, but the price trend is still increasing.
Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Short covering and increasing prices for soyoil and palmoil let also the prices of coconut and palmkernel oil increasing. Export and production figures for coconut oil from producing countries are still below preceding years.
Rapeseed Oil
Prices for Rapeseed Oil are still under the influence of still very high prices for sunoil.
Also prices for rapeseed remain firm due to the fact that nearly 15% of crops acreage have been lost in favour of wheat or due to unfavourable weather conditions in Europe.
Sun Oil
New export taxes from Argentina have caused uncertainty for sunoil from Argentina. Prices have risen in Argentina by nearly 20US-$/t on Friday. Depending on the situation if Argentina will impose higher taxes by September 1st, prices will rise further. Sellers are very reserved, buyers are shocked by these prices. Both sides are waiting as long as they could.
For nearer positions it can be said that heavy storms at the Black Sea ports have destroyed many loading stations also of sunoil. This caused that actually no offers are available from Black Sea Ports for nearer positions.
Dienstag, 6. November 2007
06.11.2007
| General Prices of vegetable oils are still increasing. The markets are very tight. Due to the following facts it is not expected that prices will come down in the nearer to medium term. a) Prices for mineral oil reached record levels during last week. The weak Dollar and the very low stocks in the USA brought up the prices to nearly 96 US-$/Barrel. The weakness of the US-$ increases the prices of all commodities which are traded in this currency. b) As showed in the last report tightness of oilseeds will be much higher than anticipated. Usage is increasing but production of oilseed is decreasing. As a result, stocks will fall during the actual crop year. c) As prices of wheat reached also record levels, and stocks of wheat reached record lows, worldwide acreages are used for wheat. d) Export Tax uncertainties or export restrictions in exporting countries cause still nervousness both at sellers and buyers. e) Many countries reduce import taxes to fight against the inflation in the country f) China and India are absorbing still higher quantities of oils and oilseeds. g) The crises in the financial markets make investments in agricultural commodities attractive as these commodities are regarded to be saver. Palm Oil The tightness in oilseeds and oils keep also palmoil prices at a very high level. Export taxes in Indonesia on the one side and rumours that China and India will reduce import taxes, keep the demand for palm oil. Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil Driven by boosting soyoil, palmoil markets also the market for coconut- and palmkernel oil increase steadily. Very low stocks and the very slow production increase keep the prices firm. Short covering and the fact that consumers are not fully covered for 2008 lead to increasing prices. Rapeseed Oil Still very high prices for sun oil and its premium over rape oil keep the prices for rape oil at record highs. Also increasing mineral oil prices make rape oil competitive as fuel oil. The demand from the bio diesel industry is still existent. And rumours that many bio diesel producers are not covered keep the prices high. In addition to this conditions of growing in Europe for rapeseed are not satisfactory. Prices are also high due to still very high prices for rapeseed. Futures for rapeseed at the EuroNext have also reached record levels. The tightness in rapeseed supplies is also existent as demand has more risen than the increase in production. Sun Oil Demand for sunoil remain very high. Some countries have already reduced import taxes on vegetable oils (Russia, Turkey). Supplies for sunoil remain very tight. Stocks are also very low. This situation keep the prices high. |
06.11.2007
| General Prices of vegetable oils are still increasing. The markets are very tight. Due to the following facts it is not expected that prices will come down in the nearer to medium term. a) Prices for mineral oil reached record levels during last week. The weak Dollar and the very low stocks in the USA brought up the prices to nearly 96 US-$/Barrel. The weakness of the US-$ increases the prices of all commodities which are traded in this currency. b) As showed in the last report tightness of oilseeds will be much higher than anticipated. Usage is increasing but production of oilseed is decreasing. As a result, stocks will fall during the actual crop year. c) As prices of wheat reached also record levels, and stocks of wheat reached record lows, worldwide acreages are used for wheat. d) Export Tax uncertainties or export restrictions in exporting countries cause still nervousness both at sellers and buyers. e) Many countries reduce import taxes to fight against the inflation in the country f) China and India are absorbing still higher quantities of oils and oilseeds. g) The crises in the financial markets make investments in agricultural commodities attractive as these commodities are regarded to be saver. Palm Oil The tightness in oilseeds and oils keep also palmoil prices at a very high level. Export taxes in Indonesia on the one side and rumours that China and India will reduce import taxes, keep the demand for palm oil. Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil Driven by boosting soyoil, palmoil markets also the market for coconut- and palmkernel oil increase steadily. Very low stocks and the very slow production increase keep the prices firm. Short covering and the fact that consumers are not fully covered for 2008 lead to increasing prices. Rapeseed Oil Still very high prices for sun oil and its premium over rape oil keep the prices for rape oil at record highs. Also increasing mineral oil prices make rape oil competitive as fuel oil. The demand from the bio diesel industry is still existent. And rumours that many bio diesel producers are not covered keep the prices high. In addition to this conditions of growing in Europe for rapeseed are not satisfactory. Prices are also high due to still very high prices for rapeseed. Futures for rapeseed at the EuroNext have also reached record levels. The tightness in rapeseed supplies is also existent as demand has more risen than the increase in production. Sun Oil Demand for sunoil remain very high. Some countries have already reduced import taxes on vegetable oils (Russia, Turkey). Supplies for sunoil remain very tight. Stocks are also very low. This situation keep the prices high. . |
Dienstag, 30. Oktober 2007
30.10.2007 (2)
Kakao
Nach einer kontinuierlichen Korrektur ziehen die Preise wieder an. Dezember 2007 - Kontrakt Kakao kostet aktuell 973 GBP/t.
Nach einer kontinuierlichen Korrektur ziehen die Preise wieder an. Dezember 2007 - Kontrakt Kakao kostet aktuell 973 GBP/t.
30.10.2007
Haselnusskerne
Haselnusskerne kosten heute mit 8,60 YTL/kg und einem Wechselkurs von 1,69 YTL/Euro umgerechnet 5,09€/kg ex works Türkei.
Haselnusskerne kosten heute mit 8,60 YTL/kg und einem Wechselkurs von 1,69 YTL/Euro umgerechnet 5,09€/kg ex works Türkei.
29.12.2007
General
Markets for edible oils are further burning. Record prices have been reached at . The following facts influence the direction of the markets:
1) Rising Mineral Oil Prices to record levels keep the interest for vegetable oil at a high level. One Barrel cost at the moment 92,80 US-$/Barrel. The development can be seen in the chart below.
2) Supplies with oilseeds will remain very tight in the season 2007/2008. According to the latest USDA report world´s production of oilseeds will decrease by nearly 4%. In the same time usage of oilseeds will increase by nearly 3%. This means that shortage of oilseeds will occur in the medium term.
3) According to the latest USDA report world´s production of oils will increase by 3,71%. In the same time usage of oils will also increase by 3,8%. This situation will lead to a reduction of stocks.
4) Demand from China and India remain at a very high level. Regular purchases keep the prices very firm.
5) Very high prices for sunoil the prices of other oils to new records. Export Tax uncertainties or export restrictions in exporting countries cause still nervousness both at sellers and buyers
Palm Oil
Increasing Export figures, stable production results, keep the prices for palm oil at a very high level.
Boosted by increasing soyoil prices at the CBOT palm oil prices reached record highs. After Indonesia has increased the export taxes on palm products prices increased heavily on Friday. Rumours that China will reduce import taxes on soy- and palm oil keep the nervousness on the markets.
Despite the very high levels record trades are made in Kuala Lumpur which is an indication that short covering is being done heavily and closed today with limit up for January 2008 contract.
It is a fact that most consumers are not covered for 2008 in total.
Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Driven by boosting soyoil, palmoil markets also the market for coconut- and palmkernel oil increase steadily.
Very low stocks and the very slow production increase keep the prices firm.
Short covering and the fact that consumers are not fully covered for 2008 lead to increasing prices.
Rapeseed Oil
Still very high prices for sun oil and its premium over rape oil keep the prices for rape oil at record highs. Also increasing mineral oil prices make rape oil competitive as fuel oil. The demand from the bio diesel industry is still existent. And rumours that many bio diesel producers are not covered keep the prices high.
Prices are also high due to still very high prices for rapeseed. Futures for rapeseed at the EuroNext have also reached record levels. The tightness in rapeseed supplies is also existent as the demand have more risen than the increase in production.
Sun Oil
Sun Oil Prices came under pressure at the beginning of last week. Having reached 1200 US-$/t level buying interest occurred. Boosted by increasing soyoil prices, prices for sunoil were also supported. Sellers became reserved by the end of the week.
Expectations that Argentina has produces much less sunoil during last crop and very low stock levels there keep the prices firm.
Unfavourable weather conditions increased the acreages less than anticipated. Depending on the crop results in the northern hemisphere prices will remain firm
Markets for edible oils are further burning. Record prices have been reached at . The following facts influence the direction of the markets:
1) Rising Mineral Oil Prices to record levels keep the interest for vegetable oil at a high level. One Barrel cost at the moment 92,80 US-$/Barrel. The development can be seen in the chart below.
2) Supplies with oilseeds will remain very tight in the season 2007/2008. According to the latest USDA report world´s production of oilseeds will decrease by nearly 4%. In the same time usage of oilseeds will increase by nearly 3%. This means that shortage of oilseeds will occur in the medium term.
3) According to the latest USDA report world´s production of oils will increase by 3,71%. In the same time usage of oils will also increase by 3,8%. This situation will lead to a reduction of stocks.
4) Demand from China and India remain at a very high level. Regular purchases keep the prices very firm.
5) Very high prices for sunoil the prices of other oils to new records. Export Tax uncertainties or export restrictions in exporting countries cause still nervousness both at sellers and buyers
Palm Oil
Increasing Export figures, stable production results, keep the prices for palm oil at a very high level.
Boosted by increasing soyoil prices at the CBOT palm oil prices reached record highs. After Indonesia has increased the export taxes on palm products prices increased heavily on Friday. Rumours that China will reduce import taxes on soy- and palm oil keep the nervousness on the markets.
Despite the very high levels record trades are made in Kuala Lumpur which is an indication that short covering is being done heavily and closed today with limit up for January 2008 contract.
It is a fact that most consumers are not covered for 2008 in total.
Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Driven by boosting soyoil, palmoil markets also the market for coconut- and palmkernel oil increase steadily.
Very low stocks and the very slow production increase keep the prices firm.
Short covering and the fact that consumers are not fully covered for 2008 lead to increasing prices.
Rapeseed Oil
Still very high prices for sun oil and its premium over rape oil keep the prices for rape oil at record highs. Also increasing mineral oil prices make rape oil competitive as fuel oil. The demand from the bio diesel industry is still existent. And rumours that many bio diesel producers are not covered keep the prices high.
Prices are also high due to still very high prices for rapeseed. Futures for rapeseed at the EuroNext have also reached record levels. The tightness in rapeseed supplies is also existent as the demand have more risen than the increase in production.
Sun Oil
Sun Oil Prices came under pressure at the beginning of last week. Having reached 1200 US-$/t level buying interest occurred. Boosted by increasing soyoil prices, prices for sunoil were also supported. Sellers became reserved by the end of the week.
Expectations that Argentina has produces much less sunoil during last crop and very low stock levels there keep the prices firm.
Unfavourable weather conditions increased the acreages less than anticipated. Depending on the crop results in the northern hemisphere prices will remain firm
Sonntag, 28. Oktober 2007
27.10.2007
Haselnusskerne
Die TMO hat mit Datum 24.10.207 fast 73.000 t Haselnusskerne aufgekauft. Für Produzenten, die weitere 124.000 t anliefern möchten, wurden Termine vergeben.
Somit wird wieder fast die Hälfte der Ernte von der TMO aufgekauft werden.
Die TMO hat mit Datum 24.10.207 fast 73.000 t Haselnusskerne aufgekauft. Für Produzenten, die weitere 124.000 t anliefern möchten, wurden Termine vergeben.
Somit wird wieder fast die Hälfte der Ernte von der TMO aufgekauft werden.
Montag, 8. Oktober 2007
08.10.2007 (2)
General
Futures prices of wheat and the soybean complex became a setback due to profit taking. The fundamentals have not changed. Stocks of wheat in the USA and the world balance is still very tight. Crop losses in Australia keep the prices at a very high level.
The development of the soycrop in the USA and a better than expected yields keep imposed some pressure on the prices on Friday.
But the downward correction is limited due to the following facts:
Dryness in Brazil in the key areas of soybeans support the futures prices in Chicago. The expected crop estimate is too optimistic.
Dryness in northern parts of Argentina delays sunflower plantings.
Rapeseed Stocks worldwide are very tight. Canadian corp reports for the actual canola is much below the expectations.
Insufficient offers of sunoil for nearer positions keep the prices of sunoil at record levels.
Record prices of high sunoil let prices for rapeoil increasing.
The situation of oilseeds in general keep the prices for palm oil firm.
Rumours about some governmental subsidies for Biodiesel producers in Europe or Brazil have an increasing impact on prices.
Palm Oil
Global tightness in Oilseeds keep the demand for palm oil at a high level. Exports of Palm oil increase from month to month. But the production is far below the increase of demand. This leads to insufficient increase in stocks. And low stock levels in the world keep the prices firm. Regarding the very high prices for soy-, rape- and sun oil have an impact on the prices which means that prices stay very firm.
Coconut Oil
Prices of Coconut Oil have increased during the last days. Very low stocks in Rotterdam and the production deficit in the producing countries were a reason for this.
Palmkernel Oil
Demand for Palmkernel Oil is due to high prices for Coconut Oil very high. As export figures for palmkernel oil are not so high as expected, prices remain at a high level.
Rape Oil
Prices for Rape Oil have reached record levels. Driven by exploding prices of sunoil prices reached for spot deliveries ovr 900Euro/t. Very low stocks in Rotterdam and missing imports of canola oil for biodiesel purposes keep the situation very critic.
New reports about reduced stocks and crops in Canada show that the global situation for rapeseed is very tight.
Combined with rumours about subsidies for the biodiesel industries prices are rallying.
Sun Oil
Situation for Sunoil remain dramatic. Prices reached record levels with trades nearly 1500 USD/t. Delays in plantings in Argentina due to dry weather conditions keep the markets under uncertainty.
Very poor offers for nearer positions leave the prices at record highs. Harvesting in Ukraine and Russia is going on, exact information about yields are not available.
Purchasing of countries like Egypt and Turkey show that demand for sunoil is very high.
Cacoa Prices eased by 17GBP/t and cost 932
Futures prices of wheat and the soybean complex became a setback due to profit taking. The fundamentals have not changed. Stocks of wheat in the USA and the world balance is still very tight. Crop losses in Australia keep the prices at a very high level.
The development of the soycrop in the USA and a better than expected yields keep imposed some pressure on the prices on Friday.
But the downward correction is limited due to the following facts:
Dryness in Brazil in the key areas of soybeans support the futures prices in Chicago. The expected crop estimate is too optimistic.
Dryness in northern parts of Argentina delays sunflower plantings.
Rapeseed Stocks worldwide are very tight. Canadian corp reports for the actual canola is much below the expectations.
Insufficient offers of sunoil for nearer positions keep the prices of sunoil at record levels.
Record prices of high sunoil let prices for rapeoil increasing.
The situation of oilseeds in general keep the prices for palm oil firm.
Rumours about some governmental subsidies for Biodiesel producers in Europe or Brazil have an increasing impact on prices.
Palm Oil
Global tightness in Oilseeds keep the demand for palm oil at a high level. Exports of Palm oil increase from month to month. But the production is far below the increase of demand. This leads to insufficient increase in stocks. And low stock levels in the world keep the prices firm. Regarding the very high prices for soy-, rape- and sun oil have an impact on the prices which means that prices stay very firm.
Coconut Oil
Prices of Coconut Oil have increased during the last days. Very low stocks in Rotterdam and the production deficit in the producing countries were a reason for this.
Palmkernel Oil
Demand for Palmkernel Oil is due to high prices for Coconut Oil very high. As export figures for palmkernel oil are not so high as expected, prices remain at a high level.
Rape Oil
Prices for Rape Oil have reached record levels. Driven by exploding prices of sunoil prices reached for spot deliveries ovr 900Euro/t. Very low stocks in Rotterdam and missing imports of canola oil for biodiesel purposes keep the situation very critic.
New reports about reduced stocks and crops in Canada show that the global situation for rapeseed is very tight.
Combined with rumours about subsidies for the biodiesel industries prices are rallying.
Sun Oil
Situation for Sunoil remain dramatic. Prices reached record levels with trades nearly 1500 USD/t. Delays in plantings in Argentina due to dry weather conditions keep the markets under uncertainty.
Very poor offers for nearer positions leave the prices at record highs. Harvesting in Ukraine and Russia is going on, exact information about yields are not available.
Purchasing of countries like Egypt and Turkey show that demand for sunoil is very high.
Cacoa Prices eased by 17GBP/t and cost 932
08.10.2007 (1)
Haselnusskerne kosten heute mit einem schwächeren Euro zu YTL mit 8,70YTL/kg umgerechnet 5,22€/kg ex works Türkei.
Preise für Weizen sind heute an der MATIF um fast 4% schwächer.
Preise für Weizen sind heute an der MATIF um fast 4% schwächer.
Samstag, 6. Oktober 2007
05.10.2007
| Getreide: Weizenpreise haben die Woche mit Gewinnmitnahmen beendet und sind leicht zurückgegangen. Die Türkei hat ihre Bestände an importiertem Getreide zum Verkauf ausgestellt. Danach ist der Kauf von neuer Ware geplant, die in den nächsten Wochen stattfinden dürfte. Mais Preise für Mais sind aufgrund guter Ernteergebnisse stabil. Sojabohnen Gewinnmitnahmen haben die Werte für Sojabohnen an der Börse in Chicago leicht belastet. Rapssaat und Canola Geringere Ernteergebnisse in Kanada wirken sich mit steigenden Preise für Rapssaat an der Börse in Winnipeg und an der Matif in Paris aus. Sojaöl Preise für Sojaöl haben leicht nachgegeben und haben gestern bei 695Euro/t geschlossen. Palmöl Preise für Palmöl haben sich nicht verändert. Lebhafte Nachfrage sorgte an der Börse von Kuala Lumpur für festere Kurse. Kokosöl Niedrige Bestände weltweit und weiterhin geringere Exportzahlen aus den produzierenden Ländern Indonesien und Philippinen sorgen für steigende Preise für Kokosöl. Kokosöl wurde zuletzt mit 975USD/t cif Rotterdam für September/Oktober 07 Verschiffung offeriert. Palmkernöl Preise für Palmkernöl wirken sich ebenfalls auf Palmkernpreise aus. Rapsöl Die Nervosität auf den Märkten wegen der Rapsmenge, die zur Verfügung steht, lässt die Kurse steigen. Gestützt durch die sehr hohen Sonnenblumenölpreise und der Schwierigkeit mit dessen Verfügbarkeit, sind viele Konsumenten gezwungen auf Rapsöl zu wechseln. Die weiterhin sehr hohen Mineralölpreise lassen Rapsöl und Biodiesel als Treibstoff attraktiver wirken. Ferner wirken sich Gerüchte über Bestrebungen der deutschen Regierung die Teilbesteuerung von Biodiesel in 2008 auszusetzen, sich auf die Rapsölpreise aus. Sonnenblumenöl Die Situation für Sonnenblumenöl ist weiterhin sehr kritisch. Verfügbarkeit für vordere Termine ist sehr schwierig. Verfügbare Ware wird mit Rekordpreisen bezahlt. Die Produktion in der Ukraine kommt sehr schleppend voran. Länder wie Ägypten oder Türkei suchen nach Ware. Haselnusskerne Die staatliche Aufkaufgesellschaft TMO hat bekannt gegeben, dass per 05.10.2007 fast 60.000 t Haselnusskerne aufgekauft worden sind. Wenn der Aufkauf so weitergeht, wird die Ware für den freien Markt früher zu Ende gehen, als von vielen angenommen. Kakao Preise für Kakao bleiben weiterhin auf hohem Niveau. Die weiterhin instabile Situation in der Elfenbeinküste lässt die Preise nicht drastisch fallen. |
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