Allgemeines:
Kaum sind die chinesischen Feiertage vorüber, kommt Bewegung in die Märkte. Getrieben durch Nachrichten, wonach 40% der Rapsernte sowie andere Agrarrohstoffe durch den extremen Frost der letzten Wochen zerstört worden sind.Der rapide Anstieg der chinesischen Nachfrage hat zu einem 3% Anstieg von Sojaöl geführt. Übrige Rohstoffe folgten.
Palm ist fast 4% teurer gehandelt worden und kostet aktuell einen Rekordpreis von 1.140 US-$/t CIF Rotterdam.
Wenn sich die Auswirkungen des Frostes weiter bestätigen, so ist mit weiterem Anstieg der Preise zu rechnen.
Die Spannungen zwischen Venezuela und dem EXXON Konzern bezüglich der Entschädigung der Ölfelder durch die venezuelanische Regierung, wo EXXON weltweit die Einfrierung von Konten der venezuelanischen Ölgesellschaft erwirkt hat. Daraufhin hat Venezuela den Verkauf von Mineralöl an EXXON eingestellt. Mineralölpreise sind auf 95,98USD pro Barrel in New York angestiegen.
Sojaöl
Gestern hat die Börse in Chicago mit 190 Punkte im Plus, ca. 3% höher als am Vortag. Da die Bestände von Sojabohnen weltweit den niedrigsten Stand aller Zeiten haben, ist mit einer Entspannung nicht zu rechnen. Falls die Erntemengen aus Argentinien und Brasilien nicht so hoch wie erwartet ausfallen, sich die Flächen in der nördlichen Hemisphäre zu ungunsten von Soja entwickeln, der Bedarf aus Asien ungebrochen bleibt, dann wird sich an der angespannten Situation nichts ändern.
Palmöl
Palmölpreise haben aufgrund von steigenden Sojaöl- und Mineralölpreisen ebenfalls deutlich zugelegt, und haben Rekordwerte erreicht. Die Nachfrage aus Asien treibt die Preise weiter in die Höhe. So zeigen erste Statistiken einen Anstieg der Exporte aus Malaysia in Höhe von 30% in der ersten Hälfte von Februar 2008 zum Vormonatsvergleich. Diese Entwicklung wird weiterhin erwartet, zumal die Preise für Palmöl deutlich unter Sojapreisen liegen. Dieser Zustand macht Palmöl vor allem in wärmeren Monaten, sehr begehrt.
Sojaöl FOB Dutch Mall 1.400 USD/t Palmöl CIF Rotterdam 1.140 USD/t
Palmkern- und Kokosöl
Getrieben durch steigende Palm- und Sojaölpreise an den Weltmärkten bleiben die Preise für Kokos- und Palmkernöl auf hohem Rekord-Niveau. Kokosöl kostet aktuell 1.355 US-$/t für März/ April 2008 Verschiffung CIF Rotterdam, Palmkernöl liegt 10US-$ darüber.
Rapsöl
Nachdem die Bestände in Europa sich etwas erholt haben, die Abnahmen aus dem Biodiesel ins Stottern gekommen sind, sind die Rapsölpreise in den letzten Tagen unter Druck gekommen. Doch die Situation an der Börse in Chicago und Winnipeg, wo die Saatenpreise stetig nach oben gehen, ist der Abwärtstrend von Rapsöl limitiert. Solange die Rapssaat Preise sich auf Rekordhochs bewegen, ist ein Crush mit niedrigeren als Ölpreisen, nicht rentabel. Daher ist kurzfristig mit einem weiteren Anstieg der Preise zu rechnen.
Sonnenblumenöl
Die Ungewissheit über den Ernteverlauf in Argentinien und die explodierenden Sojaölpreise stützen weiterhin die Preise für Sonnenblumenöl.Die Versorgung mit Sonnenblumenöl bleibt weiterhin knapp. Die Nachfrage in der EU ist weiterhin stabil.
Sonntag, 17. Februar 2008
Montag, 4. Februar 2008
04.02.2008 Oils
General
Markets for vegetable oils are still under uncertainty. Severe draught in Argentina have still big influence on crop results concerning sunflower seed and soybean. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,8 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
As soybean stocks are at record low levels negative weather news have increasing impact on prices. Heavy rainfall in Brazil hinders early harvesting of soybeans. This will lead to lower supplies from Brazil in favour of US Soybeans.
Higher prices for grains and corn make it more difficult to gain acreage for soybean planting. Soybeans must be much more expensive in order to be competitive against grains and corn.
Today Indonesia announced to increase export taxes on palm products to 20-25 % if international market price for palmoil exceeds 1.200 US-$/t. Prices in Kuala Lumpur for palm futures rose by nearly 4%.
Weather uncertainties remain the biggest item to watch concerning oilseeds. Due to profit taking and the nervousness in the international financial market, futures get under pressure – but this situation remains very shortlived.
Many importing countries try to solve the inflation risk by reducing the import taxes. This leads to stable consumption. The usage of oils and oilseed remain high. As a consequence stocks get further down.
Palm Oil
Palm Oil Plan of the Indonesian government to increase export tax on palm products to 20-25 % if world market price for palm oil exceeds 1200 USD/t, hat increasing impact on palm oil prices. Today prices in Kuala Lumpur jumped by nearly 4%. Encouraged by higher soyoil prices interest on palm oil remain high. It is considered that due to the price difference between soyoil an palmoil a shift towards palm, mainly in Europe 27 will increase prices in short to medium term. With warmer temperatures coming usage of palmoil will increase in the northern hemisphere. Stocks of palmoil will be reduced as the production peak of palm trees is over. Supply concerns will occur and this will increase the prices.
Coconut- and Palmkernel Oil
Driven by higher Palm Oil prices of palmkernel oil increased more sharply than those of coconut oil. Palmkernel oil is now more expensive than coconut oil.
Higher Palmkernel oil prices lead to higher coconut oil prices.
Production in exporting countries is below demand growth. Unregular shipments and the fact that most of the users are not long covered keep the prices at a high level.
Rape Oil and Sun Oil
Rape Oil prices hat a setback due to uncertainty in the biodiesel industry. New taxes in Germany on Bio diesel had a negative influence on usage of rape oil.
Contrary to weaker oil prices rape seed prices increase due to crop prospects.
Rapeseed supplies will be tight this and next season due to lower production and stocks.
Sun Oil
Sunoil remains at record levels as relief from Argentina will not come as expected. Demand for sun oil remains very high. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,80 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
Markets for vegetable oils are still under uncertainty. Severe draught in Argentina have still big influence on crop results concerning sunflower seed and soybean. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,8 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
As soybean stocks are at record low levels negative weather news have increasing impact on prices. Heavy rainfall in Brazil hinders early harvesting of soybeans. This will lead to lower supplies from Brazil in favour of US Soybeans.
Higher prices for grains and corn make it more difficult to gain acreage for soybean planting. Soybeans must be much more expensive in order to be competitive against grains and corn.
Today Indonesia announced to increase export taxes on palm products to 20-25 % if international market price for palmoil exceeds 1.200 US-$/t. Prices in Kuala Lumpur for palm futures rose by nearly 4%.
Weather uncertainties remain the biggest item to watch concerning oilseeds. Due to profit taking and the nervousness in the international financial market, futures get under pressure – but this situation remains very shortlived.
Many importing countries try to solve the inflation risk by reducing the import taxes. This leads to stable consumption. The usage of oils and oilseed remain high. As a consequence stocks get further down.
Palm Oil
Palm Oil Plan of the Indonesian government to increase export tax on palm products to 20-25 % if world market price for palm oil exceeds 1200 USD/t, hat increasing impact on palm oil prices. Today prices in Kuala Lumpur jumped by nearly 4%. Encouraged by higher soyoil prices interest on palm oil remain high. It is considered that due to the price difference between soyoil an palmoil a shift towards palm, mainly in Europe 27 will increase prices in short to medium term. With warmer temperatures coming usage of palmoil will increase in the northern hemisphere. Stocks of palmoil will be reduced as the production peak of palm trees is over. Supply concerns will occur and this will increase the prices.
Coconut- and Palmkernel Oil
Driven by higher Palm Oil prices of palmkernel oil increased more sharply than those of coconut oil. Palmkernel oil is now more expensive than coconut oil.
Higher Palmkernel oil prices lead to higher coconut oil prices.
Production in exporting countries is below demand growth. Unregular shipments and the fact that most of the users are not long covered keep the prices at a high level.
Rape Oil and Sun Oil
Rape Oil prices hat a setback due to uncertainty in the biodiesel industry. New taxes in Germany on Bio diesel had a negative influence on usage of rape oil.
Contrary to weaker oil prices rape seed prices increase due to crop prospects.
Rapeseed supplies will be tight this and next season due to lower production and stocks.
Sun Oil
Sunoil remains at record levels as relief from Argentina will not come as expected. Demand for sun oil remains very high. Latest crop expectations vary from 3,80 – 4,0 Mio tons against 4,3 Mio few weeks ago.
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