08.10.2007 (2)

General
Futures prices of wheat and the soybean complex became a setback due to profit taking. The fundamentals have not changed. Stocks of wheat in the USA and the world balance is still very tight. Crop losses in Australia keep the prices at a very high level.
The development of the soycrop in the USA and a better than expected yields keep imposed some pressure on the prices on Friday.
But the downward correction is limited due to the following facts:

Dryness in Brazil in the key areas of soybeans support the futures prices in Chicago. The expected crop estimate is too optimistic.
Dryness in northern parts of Argentina delays sunflower plantings.
Rapeseed Stocks worldwide are very tight. Canadian corp reports for the actual canola is much below the expectations.
Insufficient offers of sunoil for nearer positions keep the prices of sunoil at record levels.
Record prices of high sunoil let prices for rapeoil increasing.
The situation of oilseeds in general keep the prices for palm oil firm.
Rumours about some governmental subsidies for Biodiesel producers in Europe or Brazil have an increasing impact on prices.

Palm Oil
Global tightness in Oilseeds keep the demand for palm oil at a high level. Exports of Palm oil increase from month to month. But the production is far below the increase of demand. This leads to insufficient increase in stocks. And low stock levels in the world keep the prices firm. Regarding the very high prices for soy-, rape- and sun oil have an impact on the prices which means that prices stay very firm.

Coconut Oil
Prices of Coconut Oil have increased during the last days. Very low stocks in Rotterdam and the production deficit in the producing countries were a reason for this.


Palmkernel Oil
Demand for Palmkernel Oil is due to high prices for Coconut Oil very high. As export figures for palmkernel oil are not so high as expected, prices remain at a high level.

Rape Oil
Prices for Rape Oil have reached record levels. Driven by exploding prices of sunoil prices reached for spot deliveries ovr 900Euro/t. Very low stocks in Rotterdam and missing imports of canola oil for biodiesel purposes keep the situation very critic.
New reports about reduced stocks and crops in Canada show that the global situation for rapeseed is very tight.
Combined with rumours about subsidies for the biodiesel industries prices are rallying.

Sun Oil
Situation for Sunoil remain dramatic. Prices reached record levels with trades nearly 1500 USD/t. Delays in plantings in Argentina due to dry weather conditions keep the markets under uncertainty.
Very poor offers for nearer positions leave the prices at record highs. Harvesting in Ukraine and Russia is going on, exact information about yields are not available.
Purchasing of countries like Egypt and Turkey show that demand for sunoil is very high.

Cacoa Prices eased by 17GBP/t and cost 932