23.01.2008

Hazelnutkernels
Hazelnut kernels 11/13 mm cost at the moment 8,90 YTL/kg ex works Turkey which compares to 5,11 Euro/kg.
TMO has bought nearly 92.ooo tons of kernels so far.

22.01.2008

General
The financial market has start to lose ground since yesterday worldwide. Stock Exchange in Germany lost nearly 7% per day, the highest loss since September 11th, 2007.
Today losses went on in Japan and China, and it is expected that the crisis will further occur.
Banks are still writing down losses due to subprime crisis in the USA.
This nervousness influenced the commodity markets, also agricultural products.
Futures of Palmoil in Kuala Lumpur have lost nearly 5% today.
The overnight session in Chicago for the futures of soy and wheat indicate also big losses today.
Panic sales influence actually the markets.
Fundamentals for agricultural products have not changed. Production of the most important oilseeds is still not enough to fulfil the demand.

7 Oilseeds
World Supply and Demand (Mio. Tn)

Season 07/08* .06/07. 05/06 .04/05 .03/04

Opening Stocks 82,90 73,20 64,90 48,00 53,40
Production 378,40 397,20 383,30 372,10 324,40

Total Supplies 461,30 470,40 448,20 420,10 377,80

Disappearance 400,90 387,50 375,00 355,20 329,80
Ending Stocks 60,40 82,90 73,20 64,90 48,00

Stock/Usage ** 15% 21% 20% 18% 15%
* Forecast
** Stocks in % of annual disapperance
Source: USDA
Ending stocks by the end of crops season 2007/2008 will be reduced by nearly 27% compared to last year. This is the sharpest decrease ever seen. The production of the 7 Oilseeds is expected to be down by nearly 19 Mio tons compared to last season, mainly to lower production of soybeans and sunflower seed. The Production of sunflower seed is expected to decrease by nearly 3 Mio tons.
Fight for acres is expected to be very hard as both stocks for oilseeds and grains are at lowest levels.
This will have increasing impact on prices.
Strong demand remains from China and India.
Also stocks of oils become tight despite the fact that production of palm oil is increasing sharply.
Exchange RatePoor prospects on economic growth in Europe made the US-$ firmer compared to Euro.

Crude Mineral Oil
Turmoil in the financial sector led to big losses in crude mineral oil.

Palm Oil
Palm Oil futures corrected sharp in Kuala Lumpur due to nervousness in the financial sector and fell to a two weeks low.
Profit taking and liquidation of positions were the reason.

Coconut- and Palmkernel Oil
Prices of coconut and palmkernel oil fell also due to the financial crisis from their record levels. .

Rape Oil and Sun Oil

Prices for Rape Oil and Sunoil remain at record levels, despite yesterday´s and today´s corrections.

Rapeseed supplies will be tight this and next season due to lower production and stocks. Sunoil remaines at record levels as relief from Argentina will not come as expected. Demand for sun oil remains very high.

15.01.2008

Ölmärkte
Die mit grosser Spannung erwarteten USDA Zahlen haben die Befürchtungen bestätigt, dass die Versorgung mit Ölsaaten weiterhin angespannt bleibt.
Die erwartete Ölsaatenproduktion wird für das Erntejahr 2007/2008 mit 389,7 Millionen Tonnen geschätzt. Gegenüber der letzten Schätzung vom Dezember 2007 entspricht das einem Rückgang von 1,6 Millionen Tonnen.
Die sehr trockenen Wetterverhältnisse in Südamerika haben bereits zu Korrekturen in der Schätzung geführt. So wird die brasilianische Sojabohnenernte um 1,5 Millionen Tonnen weniger ausfallen als bei der letzten Schätzung erwartet.
Die Trockenheit wirkt sich auch auf die Ernteaussichten für Sonnenblumenkerne aus. Argentinische Ernteaussichten für Sonnenblumenkerne sind um 0,2 Millionen Tonnen heruntergesetzt worden.
Bei der ohnehin sehr knappen Versorgung mit Sonnenblumenkernen wirkt sich dieser Zustand katastrophal auf die Preisentwicklung aus.
Die weltweiten Bestände sowohl für Ölsaaten als auch für Getreide sind weiter rückläufig. Weizenbestände haben den niedrigsten Wert seit 60 Jahren erreicht.
Nach diesen Zahlen sind die Preise nach oben explodiert. Der gesamte Sojakomplex hat wieder Rekordwerte erreicht.
Rapssaat- und Rapsölpreise haben ebenfalls wieder Rekordhöhen erreicht.
Offerten für Sonnenblumenöl sind verschwunden. Es wird erwartet, dass heute die 1700 US$/t-Marke durchbrochen wird.
Palmölpreise haben heute um 3% angezogen. Sowohl die festen Sojaölpreise und Produktionsprobleme in Malaysia führen zu immer höheren Preisen.
Da der Flächenkampf zwischen Sojabohnen und Mais für die USA, die im März beginnt, noch bevorsteht, ist zu befürchten, dass die Preisrallye weitergehen wird.
Kurz- bis mittelfristig ist mit einer Entspannung auf den Rohstoffmärkten nicht zu rechnen.


10.01.2008
General
Markets are still under fire. Prices of vegetable oils are further increasing. Existing demand from China and India, and rumours about planned reducing import taxes in India, are keep the markets under pressure.
The following table shows the price changes of the most important commodities for the food industry.
Driven by lower stocks and deteriotating weather conditions in South America fears of bad crops lead to higher prices for all oils.
1. Due to lower stocks in the USA and instability in Nigeria caused again increasing prices after a setback earlier this week.
2. Disappointing employment figures in the USA weakened the US- $ again. Weather prospects in South America and increasing prices for mineral oil led to higher prices in Chicago for the soycomplex.
Palm Oil
Increasing demand from China and rumours about import tax reductions in India have caused that prices for palmoil have reached record high with 1.042,4 US-$/t cir Rotterdam. Higher prices of soyoil and mineral oil strengthen the prices for palm oil. Export figures are not so bad as feared, production increase is not so high as anticipated, so the prices rally from one record to the other. Temporarily price setbacks occur due to profit taking, but the direction shows higher. As crude palmoil has a discount of nearly 85US-$ to soyoil it is expected that there will be much more shift to palm in countries where possible.

Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Higher prices for Palmoil and soyoil have also an increasing impact on lauric oils. Additionally shipments from origin are very irregular and shipments from the Philippines are still below last years level. Still very low stocks in Rotterdam keep the prices under pressure.

Rapeseed Oil
EU Rapeseed Crushings were higher than expected in France, Germany and Benelux countries. EU 27 Crushings of 3 oilseeds are further increasing.
Prices for rapeseed are increasing due to this demand from the crushers and due to the increasing prices for sunoil.
Sun Oil
The first in history prices for sunoil reached 1.600 US-$/t FOB Eurpean ports. Supply concerns from Argentina due to icy temperatures and concerns about energy crisis in Argentina have pushed up the prices from yesterday to today by nearly 30 US-$. Crop prospects in Argentina remain poor, as weather conditions are too dry for the time.
Average rainfall compared to last year is catastrophic.

This means that under these circumstances the anticipated crop result will not come true, this will cause problems in the nearer future.

03.12.2007

Hazelnut Kernels TMO bought nearly 90.000 t of hazelnutkernels by the end of last week. This keeps the prices at a high level and are at 13,50YTL/kg for 11-13 mm ex works Turkey, which compares to 4,94 Euros/kg. Cocoa Prices for cocoa increased in London to GBP972,- due to funds buying. Vegetable Oils On Friday prices of oils got a setback due to liquidation of long-positions and a decrease of mineral oil prices. Prices of mineral oil eased by nearly 10% since 26th November 2007. a) Coming from 97,7US-$/Barrel on Monday, prices came back to 88,29 US-$/Barrel. Better stocks than anticipated and the warm winter caused this correction. b) Better economic figures in the USA and concerns in the EU due to higher inflation rate, strengthened the USD versus Euro. c) Following aspects will determine the direction of vegetable oils in the nearer future: *Soybean prospects in South America became worse due to unfavourable weather conditions during the last couple of weaks. Unusual dry weather in most areas of Argentina and Brazil lead to detoriating conditions. It is expected that the crop in early 2008 will be smaller than anticipated. * Very dry conditions in Argentina make the growth of the crops (Sunflower and Soybeans) more difficult. * Imports of oils to India and China are unexpectedly high. Rumours that China will reduce import taxes leave the prices firm. * Very low stocks in EU-27 countries and very slow imports put some pressure on the prices. * Situation of the palm oil production will play an important role on the direction of oils and oilseeds during the nearer future. Palm Oil Futures in Kuala Lumpur eased due to weaker mineral oil prices. Eyes are turned to import tax ideas of China and export figures of the last month. Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil Prices for Coconut and Palmkernel Oil were very active last week. Very low stocks in Rotterdam keep the prices at a very high level. Rapeseed Oil Prices of Rape Oil reached record highs. Though factories work with full capacity in Europe, stocks are unusually low in Europe. Demand for Rapeseed Oil remains high, due to high prices of mineral oil and of sunoil. Very high prices for wheat keep the prices for rapeseed at record highs. Very high rapeseed prices let the prices for rape oil rising. Sun Oil Interest for Sun Oil remains high. Weather reports from Argentina from where some relief was expected in 2008, destroys hopes of higher crop and sunoil from Argentina. Increasing rapeseed and rape oil prices have firm impact on sunoil prices.

12.11.2007

HAZELNUT KERNELS

Prices of Hazelnutkernels are increasing in Turkey with the quantities the TMO is buying out of the market. Today Hazelnut Kernels cost with 8.75 YTL/kg and an exchange rate of 1,75 YTL/Euro 5,00 Euros/kg. Per November 12th, 2007 TMO bought nearly 81.000 t of Hazelnut Kernels.

VEGETABLE OILS
General
Markets for vegetable oils are still under pressure. New all-time price highs have been established in all commodities. Soyoil prices have reached levels which have not seen since 1974. Palmoil Prices are in record levels. The USDA report published on Friday, 9th November 2007 did not bring any relief to the markets. Analysts expect the coming months to be still very tight. That futures would come due to profit taking under pressure can be expected, but this would be shortlived.
a) Crude Mineral Oil Prices remain at a very high level. Profit taking eases somehow the prices, but the situation remains tight. Devaluating US$ and falling stocks are increasing the interest in commodities to investments.
b) Bad news from the financial sector continue to influence the markets. Doubts that such news will be expected for the nearer future keeps the value of the US-Dollar falling.
c) The latest report from USDA showed no changes. The situation of oilseeds remain tight. Only wheat crop expectations have risen a bit. Argentina has increased export taxes on agricultural products. Soybeans will be taxed with 35% (previous: 27,5%), soya oil and meal with 32%(previous 24%), sunseed with 32% (23,5%), sunoil and sunmeal with 30%(20%), wheat with 28%(20%) and corn with 25%(20%).It is unclear wheather the increase in export taxes will be released by September 1st). As nearly 80% of the export volume for the coming season have been registrated it is expected that in order to avoid tax losses, the changes to be come effective by September 1st onwords.
d) It has been announced today that Pakistan will also reduce import taxes on Malaysian Palmoil products, other countries have also intentions to reduce import taxes to fight against inflation in their countries.
e) China and India are absorbing still higher quantities of oils and oilseeds.
f) The crises in the financial markets make investments in agricultural commodities attractive as these commodities are regarded to be saver.

Palm Oil
Interest on palmoil remain due to higher prices of soyoil and mineral oil at a very high level. Intentions of countries to reduce their import taxes keep the prices of palmoil firm. Futures eases from time to time due to profit taking, but the price trend is still increasing.

Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil
Short covering and increasing prices for soyoil and palmoil let also the prices of coconut and palmkernel oil increasing. Export and production figures for coconut oil from producing countries are still below preceding years.

Rapeseed Oil
Prices for Rapeseed Oil are still under the influence of still very high prices for sunoil.
Also prices for rapeseed remain firm due to the fact that nearly 15% of crops acreage have been lost in favour of wheat or due to unfavourable weather conditions in Europe.

Sun Oil
New export taxes from Argentina have caused uncertainty for sunoil from Argentina. Prices have risen in Argentina by nearly 20US-$/t on Friday. Depending on the situation if Argentina will impose higher taxes by September 1st, prices will rise further. Sellers are very reserved, buyers are shocked by these prices. Both sides are waiting as long as they could.
For nearer positions it can be said that heavy storms at the Black Sea ports have destroyed many loading stations also of sunoil. This caused that actually no offers are available from Black Sea Ports for nearer positions.

06.11.2007

General Prices of vegetable oils are still increasing. The markets are very tight. Due to the following facts it is not expected that prices will come down in the nearer to medium term. a) Prices for mineral oil reached record levels during last week. The weak Dollar and the very low stocks in the USA brought up the prices to nearly 96 US-$/Barrel. The weakness of the US-$ increases the prices of all commodities which are traded in this currency. b) As showed in the last report tightness of oilseeds will be much higher than anticipated. Usage is increasing but production of oilseed is decreasing. As a result, stocks will fall during the actual crop year. c) As prices of wheat reached also record levels, and stocks of wheat reached record lows, worldwide acreages are used for wheat. d) Export Tax uncertainties or export restrictions in exporting countries cause still nervousness both at sellers and buyers. e) Many countries reduce import taxes to fight against the inflation in the country f) China and India are absorbing still higher quantities of oils and oilseeds. g) The crises in the financial markets make investments in agricultural commodities attractive as these commodities are regarded to be saver. Palm Oil The tightness in oilseeds and oils keep also palmoil prices at a very high level. Export taxes in Indonesia on the one side and rumours that China and India will reduce import taxes, keep the demand for palm oil. Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil Driven by boosting soyoil, palmoil markets also the market for coconut- and palmkernel oil increase steadily. Very low stocks and the very slow production increase keep the prices firm. Short covering and the fact that consumers are not fully covered for 2008 lead to increasing prices. Rapeseed Oil Still very high prices for sun oil and its premium over rape oil keep the prices for rape oil at record highs. Also increasing mineral oil prices make rape oil competitive as fuel oil. The demand from the bio diesel industry is still existent. And rumours that many bio diesel producers are not covered keep the prices high. In addition to this conditions of growing in Europe for rapeseed are not satisfactory. Prices are also high due to still very high prices for rapeseed. Futures for rapeseed at the EuroNext have also reached record levels. The tightness in rapeseed supplies is also existent as demand has more risen than the increase in production. Sun Oil Demand for sunoil remain very high. Some countries have already reduced import taxes on vegetable oils (Russia, Turkey). Supplies for sunoil remain very tight. Stocks are also very low. This situation keep the prices high.

06.11.2007

General Prices of vegetable oils are still increasing. The markets are very tight. Due to the following facts it is not expected that prices will come down in the nearer to medium term. a) Prices for mineral oil reached record levels during last week. The weak Dollar and the very low stocks in the USA brought up the prices to nearly 96 US-$/Barrel. The weakness of the US-$ increases the prices of all commodities which are traded in this currency. b) As showed in the last report tightness of oilseeds will be much higher than anticipated. Usage is increasing but production of oilseed is decreasing. As a result, stocks will fall during the actual crop year. c) As prices of wheat reached also record levels, and stocks of wheat reached record lows, worldwide acreages are used for wheat. d) Export Tax uncertainties or export restrictions in exporting countries cause still nervousness both at sellers and buyers. e) Many countries reduce import taxes to fight against the inflation in the country f) China and India are absorbing still higher quantities of oils and oilseeds. g) The crises in the financial markets make investments in agricultural commodities attractive as these commodities are regarded to be saver. Palm Oil The tightness in oilseeds and oils keep also palmoil prices at a very high level. Export taxes in Indonesia on the one side and rumours that China and India will reduce import taxes, keep the demand for palm oil. Coconut Oil and Palmkernel Oil Driven by boosting soyoil, palmoil markets also the market for coconut- and palmkernel oil increase steadily. Very low stocks and the very slow production increase keep the prices firm. Short covering and the fact that consumers are not fully covered for 2008 lead to increasing prices. Rapeseed Oil Still very high prices for sun oil and its premium over rape oil keep the prices for rape oil at record highs. Also increasing mineral oil prices make rape oil competitive as fuel oil. The demand from the bio diesel industry is still existent. And rumours that many bio diesel producers are not covered keep the prices high. In addition to this conditions of growing in Europe for rapeseed are not satisfactory. Prices are also high due to still very high prices for rapeseed. Futures for rapeseed at the EuroNext have also reached record levels. The tightness in rapeseed supplies is also existent as demand has more risen than the increase in production. Sun Oil Demand for sunoil remain very high. Some countries have already reduced import taxes on vegetable oils (Russia, Turkey). Supplies for sunoil remain very tight. Stocks are also very low. This situation keep the prices high. .